Germany aluminium extrusion market outlook H2 2026

Germany’s aluminium extrusion trade enters the second half of 2026 on firmer footing than a year ago, even as Europe's extrusion industry works through plant closures, elevated billet premiums and a shift toward low-carbon, value-added output.

Germany runs a large, structural trade deficit in basic aluminium extrusions (HS 7604), importing roughly double what it exports, consistent with its role as Europe's largest downstream fabrication and OEM hub rather than a primary extrusion exporter.

Over the trailing nine quarters, Germany’s HS 7604 exports and imports (with net import volume in brackets) moved as follows:

Germany’s extrusion trade followed a broadly seasonal pattern through 2024 and 2025. Exports declined from 83,854 tonnes in Q2 2024 to 68,067 tonnes in Q4, while imports fell from 147,579 tonnes to 111,042 tonnes over the same period.

The pattern reversed in early 2025, with exports reaching 75,137 tonnes in Q2 and imports climbing to 154,260 tonnes, widening net imports to 79,123 tonnes. Both flows then weakened through H2, with exports dropping to 61,572 tonnes and imports to 121,677 tonnes by Q4.

Again, the picture improved in 2026. Exports rose from 74,114 tonnes in Q1 to 77,863 tonnes in Q2, while imports increased from 139,304 tonnes to 147,743 tonnes. Despite the QoQ rebound in imports, the Q2 figures remained 4.2 per cent below Q2 2025, while exports were 3.6 per cent higher Y-o-Y.

Germany's top five export markets absorbed 47 per cent of total export volume in Q2 2026, reflecting a still-concentrated, EU-centric trade network.

Türkiye, Italy and Austria together account for over a third of Germany's HS 7604 inbound volume, with the top five suppliers making up 55 per cent of total imports in Q2 2026.

Germany’s import mix is showing a clear divergence among its major suppliers. Türkiye remained the largest source of aluminium extrusions in Q2 2026 at 20,192 tonnes, but volumes fell 10.3 per cent Y-o-Y and were down 11.3 per cent in H1 2026. Austria recorded an even sharper decline, with Q2 imports falling 14.0 per cent Y-o-Y to 17,425 tonnes and H1 volumes down 8.9 per cent.

Türkiye, Germany's single largest extrusion supplier, has now declined for two straight quarters (down 10.3 per cent Y-o-Y in Q2, and down 11.3 per cent in H1), alongside softer intake from Austria, Poland, Greece and Slovenia. In contrast, Italy, Romania and the Czech Republic are gaining share, all posting mid-to-high single-digit or double-digit Y-o-Y growth.