World primary aluminium production growth eases to 1% in 9 months

What is up with the primary aluminium production at the end of the third quarter 2025 - wonders many people, especially with China nearing its 45 million tonnes cap, Australia grappling with energy crisis, and North America shifting its focus to secondary aluminium. Till the end of June, the world primary aluminium production was found stable, although with a few random shifts in dynamics, standing at 36.5 million tonnes – up by 1.4 per cent from 36 million tonnes a year ago. Even the quarterly production climbed up the graph from 18.115 million tonnes in Q1 2025 to 18.377 million tonnes in 2025.

Growth persists but at a cooler pace

Now, it remains to be seen whether the trend will persist through Q3 or take a different course over the next three months. Ultimately, we will assess whether production stays aligned with this year’s projected outlook. According to the IAI data, the global aluminium production gained another 1.33 per cent in Q3, reaching 18.621 million tonnes. However, it is to be noted that the growth rate dipped slightly from the previous quarter from 1.45 per cent to 1.33 per cent. Annually, the Q3 production in 2025 grew by 0.83 per cent from 18.467 million tonnes, compared to a year-on-year hike of 2 per cent seen in Q3 2024.

Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the world primary aluminium production totalled 55.113 million tonnes, up by 1.26 per cent from 54.427 million tonnes. During the first nine months of 2023, the world primary aluminium output was 52.657 million tonnes, meaning the production in the subsequent period saw an annual increase of 3.36 per cent. Hence, there has been a sluggish growth rate through the nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year.

Given the ongoing growth rate of primary aluminium production across the globe, the world output is likely to amount to 73.5 million tonnes, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.7 per cent from 73.009 million tonnes in 2024, compared to a hike of 3.24 per cent from 70.716 million tonnes. Meanwhile, global consumption is likely to reach 104.2 million tonnes, indicating that the widening supply gap will increasingly be met through secondary (recycled) aluminium.

                                                                                                                                         Source: Alcircle